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投資理財

2019年11月27日

美國股市屢創新高,投資者興高采烈,但一味上漲也帶來了下行壓力。

目前情況對投資者來說相當好。2019年的標普500指數屢創新高,而且今年其漲幅已經超過了去年底近20%的跌幅。雖然相對而言美股在這個周期中輕松領跑,但其他國家的股市也已經正式加入這場派對——MSCI全球所有國家指數(MSCI All-Country World Index)今年同樣刷新了歷史最高點。

股市屢創新高對于持股者來說好極了,但股市一味上漲也帶來了下行壓力。有些人持幣等待好的買點,有些人剛有了一筆可以入市的新資金,如果股價持續上漲,他們不得不繼續觀望。股市不斷上漲就像第二十二條軍規那樣矛盾,對當前回報率來說這是好跡象,但它幾乎一定會壓低預期回報率,原因是在股市上漲時,股息收益率和估值往往也會上升。

對于在市場出現慘案後可以較放心地買入股票的投資者來說,好消息是總會在某個地方出現熊市,甚至是在整個股票市場都在扼殺熊市之際。在本輪牛市中,以下三個領域在一定程度上一直處于落後位置。

能源股票

2008年6月,石油價格突破每桶150美元。從那時至今,油價下跌了三分之二,標普500指數的能源板塊(代碼︰XLE)也滑落了13%以上,和該指數逾200%的上漲形成了鮮明對比。在此期間,能源股一直表現最差,遠遠落後于其他板塊,而且這種情況甚至還沒有結束。就連在金融危機中暴跌的金融股(代碼︰XLF)從2008年夏天到現在也領先能源板塊135%以上。

Things are pretty good for investors at the moment. The S&P 500 continues to hit new high after new high in 2019. The gains this year have more than made up for the nearly 20% loss near the end of last year. While U.S. markets have outperformed handily on a relative basis during this cycle, foreign stocks have officially joined the party, with the MSCI All-Country World Index breaking out to new highs this year as well.

New highs are great for those holding stocks in their portfolio but there is a downside when stocks seemingly do nothing but rise. Anyone who’s been holding cash waiting for lower prices and a better entry point or those with new savings to deploy into the markets have had to do so at higher and higher prices. Rising prices are a catch-22 in that they’re a welcome sign for current returns but almost certainly detract from expected returns, given that dividend yields and valuations tend to rise when markets move higher.

The good thing for investors who are more comfortable buying when there’s blood in the streets is there will always be a bear market somewhere, even when the broad stock market is killing it. Here are three areas of the market that have been left behind to some extent during this bull market:

Energy Stocks

Oil prices hit more than $150/barrel in June 2008. Since then, oil prices are down two-thirds while the energy sector (ticker: XLE) of the S&P 500 has fallen more than 13% versus a gain of more than 200% for the overall index. Energy has been by far the worst sector during this period and it’s not even close. Even financials (ticker: XLF), which were crushed in the crisis, have outperformed energy since the summer of 2008 by more than 135%.

如果正在考慮抄底,目前收益率3.8%的能源板塊ETF(代碼︰XLE)可供一試。

貴金屬和礦業股

如果希望找到和大盤幾乎沒有關聯的股票,那就非貴金屬和采礦板塊莫屬。這些大宗商品生產商的股票經常有碾壓波動性的表現,無論是向上還是向下。Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund(代碼︰VGPMX)不光在這個周期中一直落後于大盤,它還在不斷地大幅下挫。過去10年VGPMX的跌幅接近50%,標普500指數則上漲逾240%。

The energy sector ETF (XLE) currently yields 3.8% for your troubles if you’re thinking about trying to catch a falling knife here.

Precious Metals & Mining Stocks

If you want to find stocks that have little correlation to the overall stock market, look no further than precious metals & mining stocks. These commodity producer stocks often exhibit pulverizing volatility, both to the upside and the downside. The Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund (ticker: VGPMX) has not only trailed the overall stock market during this cycle, but it’s also in the midst of a crash. Over the past 10 years, VGPMX is down nearly 50% while the S&P 500 is up more than 240%.

盡管這次下跌了50%,但2016年一年就VGPMX曾經上漲50%。從2011年至2015年,這只基金下滑了近75%。投資者經常會搜尋和大盤關聯度低的資產,以便增加持倉多元性帶來的好處。貴金屬和礦業公司看來就屬于這一類,但追逐無關資產有時意味著在市場其他領域都高歌猛進之際承擔巨大的虧損。

價值股

當20世紀90年代末出現互聯網泡沫的時候,成長股全面超越價值股,原因是投資者爭相追捧“新經濟”中的科技公司。在泡沫最大的時候,成長股和價值股的相對估值差距達到了歷史最高點,用人們認可的幾乎所有“價值”定義來衡量都是如此。而當泡沫消退時,價值股在隨後幾年里把成長股遠遠地甩在後面。

許多傾向于基本面的投資者都希望這種情況再次出現,原因是本輪周期中成長股又徹底擊敗了價值股。亞馬遜、隻果、Netflix、谷歌和Facebook等高成長公司佔據了投資者的心,乏味的老式價值股則被遺棄在了塵土中。

經過一段時間後,價值股的估值看起來終于夠低了,至少對資本管理公司AQR的克里夫?阿斯尼斯來說是這樣。他在近期發表的一篇研究報告中用多種價值指標說明成長股目前的估值已經非常高,僅次于互聯網泡沫時期。阿斯尼斯寫道︰“除了科技泡沫階段,價值股的價值已經降至歷史最低點,差距相當大。”

Those 50% losses are despite a 50% gain in 2016 alone. From 2011-2015 this fund was down close to 75%. Investors are often in search of asset classes with low correlation to the broad market to add portfolio diversification benefits. Precious metals & mining companies seem to fit that bill but the catch with uncorrelated assets is sometimes that means eating big losses while the rest of the market screams higher.

Value Stocks

During the dot-com bubble in the late-1990s, growth stocks stomped all over value stocks as investors rushed into technology companies in the “new economy.” By almost every accepted definition of “value”, growth stocks were more expensive than their value counterparts at the peak of that bubble on a relative basis than at any time in history. When the bubble deflated, value went on a huge run of outperformance over growth for years to come.

Many fundamentally-inclined investors are hoping for a repeat of this situation as growth has once again decidedly beat the pants off value stocks during this cycle. High growth companies such as Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Facebook have attracted investor mindshare while boring old value stocks have been left in the dust.

It’s taken some time but it looks like value stocks are finally getting cheap enough, at least according to AQR’s Cliff Asness. Using a number of different value metrics, Asness showed in a recent research piece that growth is more expensive now than at any time other than the dot-com bubble. Asness writes, “Excluding the tech bubble the value of value is the cheapest it’s ever been by a fairly decent margin.”

當然,時機的選擇總是上述問題中的難點。某只股票正在下跌絕不意味著它不會繼續滑落一段距離。某只股票很便宜絕不意味著它不會變的更便宜。金融危機以來,能源股以及金屬和礦業股持續遭受如此沉重的打擊是有原因的——大宗商品價格本身大幅下跌,而通脹一直得到控制。價值型公司持續跑輸成長型公司可能是因為軟件正在“吞噬”這個世界,無形資產實現增長以及投資者在資本充足的環境下願意為成長投入資金。

發生慘案時通常都會有絕佳的解釋。每一類股票的暴跌都有原因。這就是當前局勢讓投資者如此困惑的原因。大家面臨的選擇是要麼投資于基本面良好但價格高的資產,要麼投資于基本面正在變差但價格低的資產。

對投資者來說,最困難的一點是決定自己是要自律,還是要發揮想象力,繼續持有表現落後的投資。我猜那些一直手握能源股、金屬和采礦公司以及價值股的人現在會覺得自己的想法有點兒虛幻了。時間會告訴我們,他們所堅持的想象能否帶來回報。(財富中文網)

本文作者是注冊金融分析師本?卡爾森(Ben Carlson),他是里薩茲財富管理公司(Ritholtz Wealth Management)機構資產管理部門的主任。

譯者︰Charlie

審校︰夏林

Of course, the hard part with these things is always the timing. Just because something is down, doesn’t mean it can’t go down some more. And just because something is cheap, doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper. There’s a reason energy stocks and metals & mining shares have been hit so hard since the financial crisis—commodities prices themselves have been battered while inflation has been kept under control. And value companies have likely underperformed growth companies because software is eating the world, the growth in intangible assets, and the willingness of investors to pay up for growth in a world awash in capital.

When there’s blood in the streets, there’s usually a perfectly good explanation for it. Each of these categories has a black eye for a reason. That’s what makes the current situation for investors so confusing. Your choices are (a) invest in assets with good fundamentals but high prices or (b) invest in assets with deteriorating fundamentals but low prices.

One of the hardest things to do as an investor is determining whether you’re being disciplined or delusional by sticking with an underperforming investment. I’m guessing those who have stuck with energy stocks, metals & mining companies, and value stocks feel a bit delusional at the moment. Time will tell if their disciplined delusion will pay off.

Ben Carlson, CFA is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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